![\"\"](\"http:\/\/zuill.us\/WoodyZuill\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/Estimates_CantLiveWithThem_Proposal.jpg\" "\\"Estimates_CantLiveWithThem_Proposal\\"")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe title was my own.\u00a0 I’ve been talking about, and holding sessions on\u00a0this subject for several years, and the previous time I was at this event a couple years earlier I did a session on “5 Whys on Why we Estimate”.\u00a0 It was a very contentious session, with almost everyone (except me) feeling estimates are\u00a0important and needed for software development,\u00a0and the problem is just that we’re no good at it… so we just need to get better at doing estimates.\u00a0 I don’t agree (as you probably know).<\/p>\n
The “we just need to get better at it” argument sounds a lot like what I used to hear in “post-mortem” and “lessons learned” sessions in waterfall\/phased project environments. A typical “take-away” from those sessions were things like this:\u00a0“We missed our deadlines and had a lot of rework\u00a0because the requirents kept changing, even though we have a change control process in place.\u00a0 We\u00a0need to get better at controlling changes to requirements”.\u00a0 I hope you see that is very likely a bad conclusion.\u00a0 Essentially, that line of thinking is that “since control isn’t working, we need more control.”<\/p>\n
I’ve\u00a0been suggesting that if we\u00a0keep failing at getting good at\u00a0estimates even though we are working hard at becoming better at doing so (and have been doing so for countless years), then maybe we are expecting estimates to do something for us that just can’t be done.\u00a0\u00a0 Maybe there are better ways.\u00a0 [Just to be clear, for me – I feel I have found a much better way and it is Agile Software Developent as presented in the Agile Manifesto (Values and Principles) – the Agile MVP.]<\/p>\n
My position: We need to get to the bottom of what it is we want from estimates and predictions, and find a better way to get to what we really want. [HINT: What we reallly want is Sucessful Software Development Efforts (or something like that, perhaps?)\u00a0.\u00a0 Or, as long as we are wishing, let’s just wish\u00a0to win\u00a0the Mega Lottery and then spend our day’s doing something we really enjoy. Like taking hikes or arguing – whatever you like.]<\/p>\n
Participants:<\/h4>\n
There were initially 17 participants.\u00a0 Developers, ScrumMasters, Agile Coaches, Product Managers, etc.\u00a0 Almost everyone had some experience with Agile\/Scrum\/XP\/Lean.\u00a0 A few\u00a0people joined in as the session proceeded, and a few others left.<\/p>\n
Purpose:<\/h4>\n
Explore and discuss what\u00a0we\u00a0want out of estimates and the problems we’re having with estimates.<\/p>\n
[NOTE: Everything will be tainted because Woody Zuill is facilitating this session, and he\u00a0leans slightly toward the “No Estimates” approach.]<\/p>\n
Process:<\/h4>\n
My approach for this session:\u00a0Quickly explain my basic thoughts about the failure of estimates and the purpose of the session, do an information\u00a0gathering exercise.\u00a0 Ask why we feel we need estimates, have the participants write their thoughts on sticky notes, group them, and then discuss.<\/p>\n